SATIRE (unless it isn't)
THE HOAX FILES · 50
Harris +3 in Iowa, Trump by About 13
Harris +3 in Iowa. Trump won by about 13. Pollsters, please hold.
Des Moines Register poll
The most-hyped poll of the 2024 cycle missed by double digits. A court said being wrong isn't fraud.
As printed on the graphic:
Iowa Poll Hoax
What they sold
November 2, 2024, three days before the election. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll by J. Ann Selzer shows Kamala Harris leading Trump in Iowa, 47% to 44%. National media, cable news included, treated it as a sign of a late Harris surge, maybe even a landslide. FNN didn't pin down a specific CNN segment, so this is a broad-media page.
What the record shows
Trump won Iowa by about 13 points. The poll missed by about 16. Selzer then retired from election polling (Breitbart, REPORTED). Trump sued Selzer, the Register and its owner Gannett. On September 23, 2026, a Polk County judge dismissed the suit with prejudice, ruling that the poll and the reporting were protected political speech and did not meet the legal requirements for fraud or consumer deception (Washington Post, NBC, court ruling via FIRE). Trump's team said it would appeal (REPORTED).
FNN's position: polls miss, and a bad poll isn't a crime. The court agreed, and FNN accuses no one of fraud. The roast is for a press corps that built a whole closing-week narrative on one outlier poll, because it said what they wanted to hear.
The damage
FNN analysis: one outlier became "momentum." Voters felt played, and the polling industry took a hit it didn't need. Gallup's 2024 trust: 31%. Republicans at 8% by 2025.
Closer
One poll, a 16-point miss and three days of wishful thinking. Pundits, check your priors.