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THE HOAX FILES · 51
CNN Predicted $1 to $5 Million. It Opened at $7 Million.
CNN predicted a flop. It opened at $7 million, and the forecast flopped instead.
CNN
CNN's data guru forecast a flop. Two days later, CNN Business called it a breakout hit "by box office standards."
As printed on the graphic:
'Melania' Doc Is a Box Office Flop Hoax
What they sold
Late January 2026, before the release of Amazon's Melania documentary. On CNN's Erin Burnett OutFront, data reporter Harry Enten cited a projected opening weekend of $1 million to $5 million and prediction-market odds of a low Rotten Tomatoes score, and compared it unfavorably to Fahrenheit 9/11 (Mediaite, Yahoo). CNN's January 29 explainer cited an estimate of $2 million to $5 million. The vibe: flop incoming.
What the record shows
February 1, 2026, CNN Business: "Amazon touts 'Melania' box office success, though film well short of turning a profit." The film opened at about $7 million, above every CNN-cited forecast, and was on track to be the best-performing documentary of its kind in a decade. CNN's own lead said fans had made it "a breakout hit by box office standards."
The fair hedge, which CNN also reported: Amazon MGM paid $40 million for the rights and spent about $35 million on marketing (REPORTED), so it's far from breaking even in theaters. Critics panned it (via USA Today network). "Flop" was wrong as a box-office prediction. "Money-loser so far" is fair.
The damage
FNN analysis: predicting failure for something your audience already dislikes is just giving the audience what it wants and calling it data. When the numbers beat the forecast, you look like a fan club, not a newsroom. Gallup 2025: 28%, a record low.
Closer
Predicted a flop, got a breakout, then reported both with a straight face. Same network. Wake up.